By Daniel Jones,
Norton Insurance
One: The Date
The official start of hurricane season is June 1 and lasts through November 30. But for the fifth year in a row, the season started early, with sub-tropical storm Andrea forming in the gulf in late May. September is historically the most active month by far but August and October bring their fair share of backbreakers. It seems wrong to have the Disaster Spending Bill for the 2018 season sitting on the President’s desk when the 2019 season has already started. It reminds me of those NFL players that hold off on signing their contracts until the first game has already been played, looking for leverage. In this case, though, Mother Earth is a tough negotiator.
Two: The Season Forecast
Every year the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) analyzes climate data and comes up with a prediction for the coming season. The headlines you might see from this year include “NOAA predicts a near-normal hurricane season,” but that is a little misleading. They only gave it a 40% chance of being near-normal, meaning it is more likely not to be normal, for better or worse. An average season still means six hurricanes; it only takes one to ruin your day. NOAA predictions tend to be reliable. In 2005, for example, the busiest season on record with 15 hurricanes, NOAA gave it a 70% chance of being an above-normal season with a prediction of 7-9 hurricanes. In that year, six storms each caused more than $1 billion in damage. In 2015 for another example, they gave it a 70% chance of being below-normal season. In that year there were only four hurricanes and less than $1 billion total damage for the entire season.
Three: Improvements
This year, three new NOAA satellites will see action and NOAA has upgraded its model for the first time in 40 years. It is a complicated model that takes into account sea temperatures, El Nino, and West African monsoons among countless other factors. So, it comes as no surprise that they were cautious in replacing it. We all hope this investment in technology will allow earlier warnings and more accurate in-storm data. We learn from each storm and build stronger next time. If hurricanes haven’t evicted our love affair with the beach by now, they never will.
Four: The Storm Headed Your Way
The 2018 prediction was very similar to 2019’s and it was anything but a normal season to us and our friends in Panama City. Last year, there ended up being eight hurricanes and two at Category 3 or higher, both inside the range provided in the model and considered “normal.” So, don’t take the soft forecast for granted. Michael and Florence, the only two major storms of the 2018 season, accounted for nearly $50 billion in damage, or 98% of the total damage done during the season. The worst storm in history is the one that hits you.
Five: Your Supplies and Plans
It is wise to be prepared well in advance. An average hurricane season is like an average broken leg, there are a lot of ways to break a leg and all of them suck. Make sure you have supplies of food and water for several days, a travel plan, double check your insurance policies, and maybe ask your insurance agent for some time to go over everything. An insurance agent should do more than sell you insurance; they should be available to answer questions and offer feedback. Norton Insurance is committed to providing you the best service possible and to be here when a storm hits.
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